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Capitalist MON JUL 20 · 8:36 AM ET · @AdamBLiv X · CEBE forensic analysis

$38.5 MILLION UNACCOUNTED — LIVINGSTON WALKS THE ATM MATH AND FINDS THE GAP IN STRATEGY’S RESERVE DISCLOSURE.

Adam Livingston posted 34 minutes after the 8-K landed with a full CEBE walk of Strategy’s capital-markets activity. Last week: 843,775 BTC, $3.0B USD reserve, 376.433M basic shares, 144,035.96 CEBE sats per share. This week: 2,732,318 MSTR shares sold, $263.5M net raised, zero BTC purchased, USD reserve up $225M. Livingston froze BTC at $63,743.46 and held debt plus preferred claims constant to isolate the capital allocation effect. Scenario one, count only the disclosed $225M: CEBE falls 144,035.96 to 143,928.95 sats per share — a loss of 107.01 sats per share, 0.0743%. But the question is where the remaining $38.5 million went. $263.5M raised minus $225M reserve add equals $38.5M unaccounted. If it landed in preferred coverage buffer, common CEBE dilution is even smaller than the headline. If it landed in operating cash, the dilution is more subtle than the ATM raise suggests. Every disclosed dollar in Reserve services the preferred. Every undisclosed dollar buys treasury optionality. Bobby’s CEBE tracker will show which one dominated by end of week.
READ LIVINGSTON’S FULL BREAKDOWN →
@AdamBLiv · X · mon jul 20 8:36 AM ET · x.com/adambliv
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