BITCOIN 200WMA GROWTH SINCE 2020 — LIVINGSTON’S TABLE LAPS GOLD AND S&P BY AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE EACH YEAR.

Adam Livingston posted the table Sunday night. Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average growth rate by year since 2020: +53.1% (2020), +142.9% (2021), +30.1% (2022), +22.0% (2023), +43.4% (2024). Gold: +10.2%, +9.6%, +8.9%, +7.7%, +8.2%. S&P 500: +10.6%, +16.2%, +10.6%, +9.0%, +13.8%. Bitcoin lapped both time-stores by an order of magnitude every single year. His headline was one line: “BITCOIN DIMINISHING RETURNS? LOL.” The Capitalist read: the wrapper trade compounds because the underlying does. Every diminishing-returns thesis assumes convergence to a market average that the 200WMA has never approached in six consecutive years. The math the critics run to compress mNAV assumes an underlying that grows at S&P rates. The data says the underlying grows at an order of magnitude above S&P rates. Whichever assumption you pick determines whether the wrapper trade is a compression trade or a compounding trade. The data has been picking ‘compounding’ for six years running.