The on-chain print crossed a specific line this week. More than 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at a paper loss. Historically, every prior cycle bottom — 2015 August, 2018 December, 2020 March, 2022 November — came within roughly 50 days of the supply-in-loss metric crossing 50%. The Fundamentalist read does not sell this as a call. It sells it as a shape. When more than half of the coins in circulation are underwater, the marginal seller runs out. Forced supply clears, and price finds a floor because the last panic hands have already exited. Pair this with the long-term-holder capitulation print. Pair this with the Iran tape context. The three-variable stack reads as a bottoming setup, not a topping one. Count the shape; do not trade the shape. And do not forget: the cap is still twenty-one million, and every day that passes reduces the number of new coins available to buy the dip.